Crane Co T.CR

Primary Symbol: CR Alternate Symbol(s): CXT

Technology Scientific & Technical Instruments

Crane Company is a manufacturer of engineered components for mission-critical applications focused on the aerospace, defense, space and process flow industry end markets. Its segments include Aerospace & Electronics, Process Flow Technologies, and Engineered Materials. The Aerospace & Electronics segment supplies critical components and systems, including original equipment and aftermarket parts, primarily for the commercial aerospace, and the military aerospace, defense and space markets. The Process Flow Technologies segment is a provider of engineered fluid handling equipment for critical applications. The Engineered Materials segment manufactures fiberglass-reinforced plastic panels and coils, primarily for use in the manufacturing of recreational vehicles, truck bodies and trailers (Transportation). It also designs and manufacturers multi-stage lubrication pumps and lubrication system components technology for critical aerospace and defense applications.

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Crane Co > RBC Base Price Deck

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Comment by gonatgasgoon Jan 30, 2022 12:09pm

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Post# 34376077

RE:RE:RE:RE:RBC Base Price Deck

Oldnagger, you have a point, but, to use your analogy, you also need to take into account how much gas you have in your tank. In this case, the gas is the cash you either have or is available to you.

Crew should be a 200,000 boe/d company. The problem is that they cannot afford to grow to that level.

The land and the reserves are great. However, would a bank let them borrow $500M and use the land as collateral?

This is why some people (I am not keen on it, at least not yet) keep talking about a takeover. If a company comes and spends $500M to $1B on drilling and infrastructure they could unlock the value in the reserves and land, but Crew can only unlock it slowly and thanks to more favorable natural gas prices.

Oldnagger wrote:
Here is my problem with a lot of analysis that is being done not only here but across, the investor spectrum. That is the emphasis on AFF , FCF and EV / DACF etc. ALL these measures are valid indicators just like the speedometer on your car. What is missing is an accelerometer which will tell you not only how fast you are going but how fast you will be going. Also missing is the tank guage which will tell you how far you can go. For Crew there is no real limitation at 40 kbpd , infrastructure can always be added but it will probably mean more debt and a delay to dividend payouts.

Where is Crew going? Not sure but with low decline rates , very high returns on drilling, extensive reserves and land holdings all this coupled with a massive tax loss position the trend is much higher.
The only thing that can screw Crew is nervous investors willing to sell out for a pittance.

I for one will always fight to help ensure in any way that I can that that never happens. Hoping as always that many will join me !!
Let us emphasize the positive , The reserves statement later this year will show us where we are going. It will also give us a new valuation for the shares (based on a10% DCF say) The comparison of the 2021 evaluation (less debt) versus the 2020 evaluation will be a much better indicator of profitability than FCF calculations etc.

If anyone wants to take a stab at estimating the end 2021 discounted reserves valuation , then It would be much appreciated by myself and probably many more. Perhaps we could even send a copy to Eric Nuttall as a reminder that the industry is more complex than he likes to paint it !!