MigraineCall wrote: It is widely expected that on Feb 2 22, OPEC+ is going to allow members to add 400,000 bbls a day combined. However they seem to have only been able to add only half of their 400k allotted January additional production quotas, even considering that the price of oil has been the highest in over a year.
Have we finally reached the exhaustion of OPEC+ spare capacity?
It is in the interest of each member to inflate their stated production capacities in order have the highest baseline production before going into proportional curtailments. The past year has left many unable to ensure the replacement of declining well depletions and maintain fields. Many wells have been permanently shut.
Mambers have held their cards close to their chest, but now we get to see what they really have as they lay it all on the table.
Now may be the time to hold any position in any oil producer as the SHTF.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-oil-output-rises-by-210000-bpd-january-survey-shows-2022-01-31/
OPEC oil output rises by 210,000 bpd in January, survey shows
LONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The following table shows crude output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in millions of barrels per day (bpd) in January and December, according to a Reuters survey published on Monday.
OPEC and allies, known as OPEC+, are unwinding record output curbs made in 2020 but are still withholding millions of barrels. In January, the cuts required of OPEC stood at 2.129 million bpd, according to Reuters calculations and OPEC figures.
Compared with the levels from which they agreed to cut, which in most cases was their output in October 2018, the 10 OPEC members bound by the deal reduced output by 2.803 million bpd in January, the survey found.
Since the actual cut made was 2.803 million bpd rather than the 2.129 million bpd pledged, OPEC's compliance stood at 132% in January versus 127% in December.
December's output was not revised.
The figures in the first, second and fourth columns in the table are in millions of barrels per day.
| | January output | December output | Change vs. December | Baseline for 2020 cut | Remaining cut pledged | Cut achieved | January output target | Compliance (%) |
| Algeria | 0.98 | 0.97 | 10,000 | 1.057 | 85,000 | 77,000 | 972,000 | 91 |
| Angola | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0 | 1.528 | 122,000 | 428,000 | 1,406,000 | 351 |
| Congo | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0 | 0.325 | 25,000 | 65,000 | 300,000 | 260 |
| Eq. Guinea | 0.09 | 0.08 | 10,000 | 0.127 | 10,000 | 37,000 | 117,000 | 370 |
| Gabon | 0.19 | 0.18 | 10,000 | 0.187 | 15,000 | -3,000 | 172,000 | -20 |
| Iraq | 4.2 | 4.23 | -30,000 | 4.653 | 372,000 | 453,000 | 4,281,000 | 122 |
| Kuwait | 2.58 | 2.54 | 40,000 | 2.809 | 224,000 | 229,000 | 2,585,000 | 102 |
| Nigeria | 1.46 | 1.41 | 50,000 | 1.829 | 146,000 | 369,000 | 1,683,000 | 253 |
| Saudi Arabia | 10.1 | 10 | 100,000 | 11.000 | 878,000 | 900,000 | 10,122,000 | 103 |
| UAE | 2.92 | 2.88 | 40,000 | 3.168 | 252,000 | 248,000 | 2,916,000 | 98 |
| TOTAL OPEC 10 | 23.88 | 23.65 | 230,000 | 26.683 | 2,129,000 | 2,803,000 | 24,554,000 | 132 |
| Iran | 2.48 | 2.48 | 0 |
| Libya | 0.99 | 1.03 | -40,000 | | | |
| Venezuela | 0.66 | 0.64 | 20,000 |
| TOTAL OPEC 13 | 28.01 | 27.8 | 210,000 | |
Totals are rounded and may not add up.
Compliance is calculated by the following method in the table above.
Baseline for cut minus January output = cut achieved.
Cut achieved divided by pledged cut = percentage compliance.
Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from making voluntary output cuts.
The Reuters survey aims to assess crude supply to market, defined to exclude movements to, but not sales from, storage. Saudi and Kuwaiti data includes the Neutral Zone.
Venezuelan data includes upgraded synthetic oil. Nigerian crude output includes the Agbami and Egina streams and excludes Akpo condensate.
Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar Editing by David Goodman