No Smooth ride to 30 bucks a shareToday was a day that reminded oil and gas investors-- and of course CVE as well-- that there is no smooth ascent to 30 bucks a share. Investing in energy just doesn't make for a stable ride.
The impairments don't bother me because if you think you are in for a good year (which 2022 should be) then get your writeoffs out of the way in the 4th quarter statements for the previous year and then you don't have to worry about them for the duration. You don't want anything to dampen a great year if you can help it.
The net debt target of $8B is still on track. It might be realized by the end of this month or by next month but it doesn't much matter to the markets--the trend is your friend and going from 13.2B down to 8B is still a remarkable achievement.
My one serious criticism would be on the dividend side. They didn't have to double it but I think that a 50% raise was manageable and would have been a better signal to the markets.
A lot of investors--especially ones that are looking for yield to fund their retirements-- aren't too worried about share buybacks and most would not have an understanding of their shorter term effects. And alot of investors are not too familiar with FCF and a host of other financial yardsticks because they just want to know if the company is (a) stable--not too much debt (b) pays a good dividend that is reliable. It's a mistake to see the markets as more sophisticated than they really are. Keep it simple, pay down the debts, limit Capex and please up that dividend by at least 50% in May.