RE:Fancy ciphering implies forward PE < 4.43 Rev +>$1.48B Q1/Q4Interesting way of getting to your number. Not how I was trained but the rules all went out the window a long time ago.
I think you have left out some pretty important stuff but maybe you were just trying to be conservative.
I expect that the upstream production in Q1 is likely to be close to the high end of guidance which could add up to 30,000+ additional bpd. I also think your crack spread numbers are low according to what our crack spread specialist has posted.
One way or another, the Earnings and FFO/FCF (much more important metrics imo) are going to be strong.
Earnings and other metrics are barely relevant anymore in the short run. The share price of SU is controlled by investment bank trading desks and option traders. And now we have interest rates back in play after a 14 year hiatus
The speed and volume of trades is controlled by algos that differentiate the power players from the rest of us. Other than Migraine, we are all just spectators.
What we can do is pay attention to SU's guidance and see how their performance measures up to the expectations. Other than that, all we can do is be aware of the direction of oil inventories and demand/supply trends. Trying to sift through the mountain of daily noise is exhausting and pointless imo unless you are running multiple screens and utilizing expensive trading programs.