RE:RE:RE:6 reasons why IMO Kelt is best kept secret in small cap E&PNew price deck out from TD, still conservative for 2023, but their KEL estimates are:
2022
31k boe/d netbacks of $27.84 giving CFFO of $316M and capex of $250M
2023
36.5 boe/d netbacks of $22 (!!) giving CFFO of $293M and capex of $250M
For 2022/2024 they have WTI at $85/$75 and AECO at $4.35/$3.25 so...production growth of ~20$ and a decline in FFO?
They're the highest payout % in the report for 2023 with capex of 85% of FFO, but price target moved up to $8.50.
I don't agree with the 2023 numbers as anything more than a baseline, KEL has super high torque to higher oil and gas prices given the high capex and production growth. The last 25% price jump is appreciated by me after (stupidly) selling off about half at 5.70. I think the market's focus on FCF may give us another buying opportunity on the next WTI sell off, market isn't appreciating the growth story if the expectation is for $75 WTI in a year.