RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Now you are talking my languageFaux, warning amateur hour response: I mean all boats are going to rise obviously but to your important reminder, on one of my napkins I have Kelt at $25 adjusted netback on $60 WTI and $3.50 AECO (30% light oil at WTI -4, 1.3 exchange, 10% NGL at 50% of light oil realized, 8% royalty, $8 ops, $3 transport, $1 G&A, 18% premium (in mcf) to AECO) which at 40,000 boepd, gives us $365M of cashflow. Apply $6M well costs (Oak will go lower but Wembley may go higher - warning amateur hour) and 50 wells, that's $300M on DCT and $65M on infra (18% - NVA is at 15% now). 50 wells at 1.1M EUR (avg of Wembley and Oak) = 55M barrels added to PDP in a year. 40,000 production removes 14.6M, so a net add of 40M barrels (almost 4:1 replacement ratio) to PDP. Production wise, 35% decline on 40,000 equates to 14,000 boepd lost, the 50 wells could add 750 boepd (IP365) (Oak is 556 but will be higher IMO - the ratio of EUR to IP365 is too low) or 37,500 so at $60 WTI and $3.50 AECO, Kelt should still be growing.
By the way, I think this is how PDP is done but not sure. 2P I have no clue, probably not for amateurs.