RE:RE:Q1 guess and $5 AECO ramificationsMy production #s are guesswork and to your point, Q3 and Q4 boepd fell short of my guess...
My basis for Q1 was 2021 (actual 2021 Q1 ~ 2021 annual forecast) and well status - the 3 Wembley online in Q4 should produce more in Q1 I wildly guessed, the Oak wells should produce more too, add the Pouce Coupe Gas well (1 being online in Q1, the other in Q2) and perhaps more Wembley wells (15 are to be brought on line in 2022). The realization is based mostly on available data (budget cash costs, commodity costs, commodity mix, hedges in place) and I should be more accurate hopefully.
I'm perplexed as to why they hedged that much oil in Q1 - they usually hedge a maximum of 50% for the upcoming quarter - so unless Q1 production was 10,000 bpd of oil (doubt very much) which would be a whopping increase over Q4..