RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:TD upgrade $8.50Thank you for your "feedback".
#1 - my basis is CNQ's Wembley's liquids #s for Q4 - 65% - they also reported that production exceeded their expectations by 2,500 boepd and 7Mmcf/d for the 18 well program or 139 bpd liquids and 65 boepd NG. Here is what Kelt said about this in the Q1 PR: "One of the wells on the 4-well pad will be drilled in a previously untested lower Montney zone (D1) that, if successful, could unlock significant inventory upside". So its not entirely unfounded speculation.
#2 - Pouce Coupe Gas is very good obviously but its only 30 locations at 2.7M EUR. Wembley is 870 locations at 1.1M EUR and Oak is 583 locations at 970K EUR. So yes relatively speaking, its small. The AIF reports the Pouce Coupe region production - which includes Pouce Coupe gas, Pouce Coupe oil, Progress Oil and Charlie Lake - was 10,469 boepd for 2021.
#3 I clearly separated Pouce Coupe gas from Pouce Coupe/Progress oil. The latest presentation has inserted a small map that shows that breakdown very clearly now.
#4 Charlie Lake - the word prolific is from the Company press release. There was a big change in Charlie Lake EUR (from 440,000 to 522,000) in most recent presentations, the oil didn't change but gas went from 180,400 boepd to 276,660. Still they must have sufficient infrastructure there as they are bringing 14 wells on line in the area in 2022 - I believe its 2 Pouce Coupe gas, 4 Pouce Coupe oil and 8 Charlie Lake wells.
Best bet for a "sale" - after I saw the transaction by Leucrotta/Vermillion, I certainly would be supportive of a sale of one of the smaller assets at a fair price. Reason being, the share price is so low, it would be very attractive in my view to do an NCIB or better yet, a SIB.
Of course Wembley is the best play right now.