Projections and guesstimationsIt's true that beverages and pharmaceuticals have high margins but working with what we know or think we know is that Tinley's first line is capable of 30 million skus per year. If we average .50 c per unit which is what was suggested for co-bottling minimum and assuming we can keep this cranking at full capacity for a year, that is $15 million.
Since then we have added 2 more lines, one shot and one can and some think they can run at the same time so if we can keep those running full time, that makes $45 million revenue.
If we can do better margins with our Tinley's that should raise the revenue even more and then there is growing out to other States by doing co-bottling deals for our Tinley's. 12 or 15 States where it may be possible to branch out to, times whatever legal population we can garner increases revenue after we get to black ink.
Canada can be serviced from our two co-bottlers and has near the same potential as California, but the prices are better in Canada and I don't know about the costs, but I'm guessing maybe a little more for somebody providing that service because of ingredient costs and labour which are probably higher in Canada.
It will take a lot of coming together and that is the way that the big two cola bottlers made their bones and saturated the countries with their products. Of course there weren't any crazy-azz legal pitfalls at every step to do Colas compared to cannabinoids.
It took a long time for Tinley to get where we are! I don't know if it could have been done quicker or better. Probably could given that Pabst Labs only took a couple of years but that was after Tinley.
What is important now is that Tinley is a going concern with money making potential doing business in a very desirable marketplace with promise of better legislation to come to free up some of the encumbrances that are keeping some big players on the outside, looking in.
As mentioned before, Tinley is also low sharefloat and the debt is current and reasonable. Some of the other big noise thc sku bottler/manufacturers have fund raised and drowned their own sharefloat and aren't doing any better than Tinley and the smart money are swallowing up the pieces of their remenants.
Jmho, but there is one great greenrush left and that is the US, when they decriminalize pot from Federal jurisdiction and the smart and profitable rise to the top and the weak and unfunded go by the wayside.
Constellation put up $5 billion C because they see cannabinoid infused beverages as a future cannibalizer of their marketshare for softer beverage alcohol. They bought themselves into reach of total control of Canopy Growth, to be a part of the change, rather than the dinosaur.
Since then, most other major brewers are positioning to be a part of the change rather than on the outside looking in.
Interestingly Canopy/Constellation seem to be positioning for the East coast, with a 300k sq foot facility in New York and Canopy's inked deal partner is also mostly on the East Coast, so a licensed thc facility in Long Beach might round out their ambitions nicely.
Raises the question of what multiple of current shareprice are we worth to one of the MSOs or LPs?
$60 million as mentioned by a previous poster for a deal would give Tinley a $4 plus per share value or I seem to remember Tilray paying $300 million for Sweetwater Brewing.
Getting the politicians to deal with fixing the laws for pot in the US will launch the greatest greenrush the world is going to see.
Even a shmuck like me made some serious money on the Canadian greenrush, led by Canopy growth and the US greenrush could be 10x the potential.
glta and dyodd