GREY:NEVDQ - Post by User
Post by
bogfiton Apr 22, 2022 3:00pm
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Post# 34624797
Mariupol is another Russian disaster in the making.
Mariupol is another Russian disaster in the making. We need to recognize that the assault on Mariupol and the goal of developing a “land bridge” to Crimea, was developed when the Russian General staff expected Kiev to fall in 3 days. Instead, the Russian Army has been forced to pound the city into rubble.
Why is this another military disaster not unlike their failed assault upon Kiev, is that none of the Russian planning had envisioned a devastated country side without electrical service and no water over the two hundred mile route from the Russian border to Mariupol. No refueling, no repair, no support for an attack west of Mariupol then 300 miles from supply in Russia, and this extended line of communication is naturally vulnerable to intersection by special ops.
None of these obvious consequences of the defense of Mariupol were accounted for when the Russian invasion began. Once again, the failure of Russian forces capturing the capital and arresting its government has made all their previous planning obsolete and potentially disastrous.
It also appears that preparation for the Eastern Assault was rushed to meet Putin’s arbitrary date for a victory in May. It’s a general rule to attack with a 3:1 superiority which the Russians infantry barely have in the East. However, considering that the Ukrainians have had plenty of time to develop strong defensive positions, Russian success is unlikely using only conventional weaponry.
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