Stock buy backs and expected NAV by Q1.2022H&R has purchased 12.7m shares year to date including the 3m shares they purchased in April which they announced today at under $13/share. I expect this 4 months of NCIB will add 25-30 cents to NAV.
Since they have a 55% affo distribution ratio I expect another 10-13 cents added to NAV from retained earnings.
Most importantly it will be interesting to see the nav increase driven by fair market value adjustment through external appraisals, considering where the multifamily and industrial cap rates are transacting today vs. their reported value i expect at least $2 per share increase on FMV gains this quarter.
These three combined could easily mean a $20 reported nav on their financials on thursday. That will be a 70% premium from where they are traded today. Management could use this big discreptancy in nav vs. trading price to further accelerate their NCIB program by purchasing large blocks rather than the 170k daily units maximum. It will be a very interesting quarter to watch out for.