RE:RE:160M CONTRACTrunning a quick NPV on the contract with a 30% gross margin assumption, and 10% discount rate, i value the base case contract of $160MM @ $0.43 accretive to fair market value, and $0.62 accretive if they receive an extension for an additional 5 years, all discounted back to today.
Assuming they hit their targets with base business, i would project end of year revenue @ $44MM, 2023 end of year @ $84MM, and 2024 $ 124MM.
With market cap at $101MM, or 1.2x 2023E revenue multiple. NSCI looks grossly undervalued. my 12month target is closer to $3.00-$3.50 assuming 3x 2023E revenue.
Thoughts?
Oily