RuudinFrance wrote: Well, one can’t fight hard facts, the company is making lots of money.
However, one might question the nature, depth, completeness of differing sets of facts.
My set of facts, used in investment decisions, is a bit more extended than just the outstanding management and present performance of the company, besides the current price of O&G, which Righand often applies.
Among others, I like to include:
1 Current inflation numbers. (google “Milton Friedman on inflation”).
2 How to fight inflation. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Volcker).
3 Current debt levels of governments and central banks.
4 Climate change and the force of the green revolution.
5 Lack of investments in the resources arena.
6 USA elections in November.
7 The value of fiat money.
Readers of my writings (~100-150) know of the 6.5 bagger on NLC, many of you have better numbers with PIPE than I have and even I am looking at getting an equal PIPE multiple as with NLC.
It takes too much time to explain in detail why this happened and is happening, you can do/surely have done, some of that work already for yourselves. If not, some hints: For Lithium, google “Morgan Stanley, 2019” and for O&G “Climate change, fossil fuels”.
There are some questions:
1 Can item 1 (above) be battled by item 2, while item 3 is like it is?
2 Is the will/necessity (governments, science, activists, investors) to battle item 4 very large?
3 Is fiat money possible in a future neoliberal world?
My investment strategy is based on: “NO” for question 1, “YES” for question 2 and “NO” for question 3.
Past investment in resource mining has been abysmal (shown with Li and O&G cases, same is valid for PM and BM).
Based on the above, my investment decisions have been:
1 Get slowly out of PIPE (the only place I can get cheap money), but apply Lobo’s UM for 50% of holdings and complete selling at >$7.- (there’s still time to do this at a slow pace and wait for the $7). US$ rate lifts the C$ some 15% over what I bought C$ for. I’ll withdraw to Euros.
2 Add more into PM and BM miners (juniors) and physical PM commercial vault storage.
At the moment prices are ridiculously low for both juniors and physical.
This may give me, short term, some $225K to reinvest and longer term another $315K. It’s certain that good sums will be withdrawn to Euro.
I find the case for a recession (short-term), with US mid-term elections approaching, unlikely. The FED will print more, not the usual QE (not very inflationary), but stimmy cheques for voters (very much inflationary). General stock markets may hold for this year, but it’s borrowed time.
So, in the longer term I think we will skip a recession and hit a full-blown economic depression next year, which will last a number of years (similar to, or perhaps worse than, something like 1929). It seems very obvious to me that during an economic depression, the use of energy will fall dramatically. Hence, the share price of PIPE might well fall to summer 2020 levels, however good the resource and the management might be, supply will be larger than demand.
I’m preparing myself for the latter case.
Who knows what plans Don2019, trader Joe and CasperWy have for future investments?
Betting only on John’s dataset seems a bit like, …..... well, betting …..... ?
And as usual the formal disclosure is, that I know nothing, but I do like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTdRJM3BFlk