RE:RE:Inflation - Who CaresI fully expect the general market to crash. There are very few safe havens. I hold a heavy holding of SQQQ, the leveraged bear market fo rteh Nasdaq. It has almost doubled. Crypto, gold, and admittedly even oil to an extent will take a hit as the finest stocks get sold off to cover losses elsewhere.
That being said, I havn't had a lot of time to be able to trade agressively as I had before, due to buying this villa and organizing a massive renovation with 2 pools on the way. As the market increased, so did my cash margin limits, going up considerably. The accounts grow by more than 7 figures a month this year on average, even the consideration of the highest bracket of taxes that will be due. These last few weeks month have been the biggest gains ever.
I have also seem to have been busy at the orphanage too, trying to help in ways that give them the ability to help themselves, rather than a handout.
Although it sucks to be down $1.25M in a day, I bought 500k more of HEU.TO as the energy market was on such a sale, and it seems to be bouncing back up already. During this 20% bear market, oil is proving itself by staying strong around $120 a bbl, which for me, proves that I am still on the right path for the bull oil market thesis. Inventories, and supply risks are still very bullish as demand gets only stronger. China return, hurricanes, fuel shortages, heat waves, low inventories, all set the stage for a massive push up in oil prices.
Like Experienced, I have lived through many market train wrecks, and they cost me dearly. As for my outlook, I still have full confidence in the oil market and expect these undervalued energy stocks we hold to stay strong during this storm, but nothing else looks safe out there to me, even real estate. I'd suggest to short everything else out there.
Bring it on...
NPCexe wrote: Been out for a few weeks now. This might be the beginning of the crash.
Experienced wrote: Right now in the US, the "official" inflation rate is now 8.6%. In the media, they say that this is worst that it has been for 40 years (ie 1982). What the media doesn't tell you is that the way inflation is calculated has changed over the years in a way to reduce the measured inflation. So we are comparing the proverbial apples to oranges.
Why should we care?
The inflation rate in the early 1980s was sufficient to cause a recession and a significant drop in the stock market. If we actually used the same methodolgy to calculate inflation today, the rate today would be in the double digits and so the situation today is worse than it was back then.
To make matters worse, in the early 1980s the US had a competent Presidential Administration and a competent Chair of the Federal Reserve with a backbone. Today we have neither. If we go around the World we see the same story.
So when you put this together, the table is set for a recession and a significant decline in stock prices. It is just a matter of time before it happens.
As Rockfeller said in response to a question in the early 1900s - "Don't fight the tape". The corollary to this is take advantage of it. Since I made my first investment in 1969, I have lived through the commodity price crash in the early 1970, the oil embargo in 1979, the crash in 1987, the collpase of the tech bubble in 2000 and the Great Recession of 2008 to name some of the historical events. I am still on my feet and one of the primary reasons for this is that I anticipated events and more importantly took steps to protect my assets and had the resources (money) to buy things on sale after things calmed down. I am doing that again now.
My best advice to those who care to read my posts is to do the same. One thing I have learned over the years is that the market at times can be quite brutal and doesn't take any prisoners.