Next Today is Sunday June 19
There are 9 trading days before the end of the quarter
If the share price closes on June 30 in the C$11s then there will be almost no performance expense in q2 (the closing price at the end of Q1 was $11.08)
There will also be a far lower hedging cost
This means two things
1. Management has an incentive to run the share price up to a higher close on June 30
2. If the price stays around where it is, or declines, then Q2 FFO is going to be higher than expected. By higher I mean close to $150 million (compared to $79 ish for Q1). That's almost a double.
The Q1 FFO number was suppressed by one time expenses of about $23 million (performance) and $17 million (hedging cost). Without those, the Q1 FFO would of been about $120 million
Increased sales prices and volume take that to nearly $160 in Q2. Subtract hedging costs and you end up around $150 million FFO
Annualize that and you get unavoidable appealing ratios. The sort that fund managers can't ignore
For example - a current share price of about 1.6x annualized FFO
2.5x annualized FFO (which seems to be the current ridiculously low multiple others are trading) takes OBE to c$18.25
Not so long ago a company with little growth would average 4X FFO
Something with OBEs growth would of been around 8x FFO.
So next for me is the closing price on June 30
After that will be the refinancing details
Then after that - July 20 something - will be the official Q2 reveal
It will be interesting to see what happens to the share price in the days leading up to June 30.
The last few days of the prior 2 quarters seemed to bid up the share price. One wonders what will happen this time?