Why We Think Baytex Energy (TSE:BTE) Is Well Worth Watchingfrom Simply Wallst
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-think-baytex-energy-145105645.html
They said...
*** Trading at 87,2% below our estimate of it's fair value !!! Hummm... 6.25*1.872 == 11.70$ a bit high before Q2 !
But after Q2 ... we never know !!!
*** Revenue is forecast to grow 15,83% per year Nice ! But I think with hedges around 15-20% maximum for 2023 and boe/d around 90,000, may be over 25% grow for 2023.
*** Earnings grew by 7037% over the past year WOW !!! You know why ? Because they recovered the past write-offs on their reserves because the futur price of WTI and other energy sources doubled in the last 18 months !!!
Last year they done their Impairment reversal in Q2 :
Look at the price they used :
| At June 30, 2021, we identified indicators of impairment reversal for oil and gas properties in each of our six CGU's due to the increase in forecasted commodity prices. | |
| We recorded an impairment reversal of $1.1 billion at June 30, 2021 as the estimated recoverable amount of all six CGUs exceeded their carrying value. | | |
| No indicators of impairment or impairment reversal were identified for the Company's E&E assets at June 30, 2021. | | | | | |
| Total Impairment reversal : | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 1 126 414 000 $ | 41% | | | | | | | | | | | | 2021/2020 |
| | | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Avg. | |
| WTI (US$/bbl) | | 71,33 $ | 67,20 $ | 63,95 $ | 63,23 $ | 64,50 $ | 65,79 $ | 67,10 $ | 68,44 $ | 69,81 $ | 71,21 $ | 67,26 $ | 28,4% |
| WCS (CA$/bbl) | | 72,22 $ | 66,84 $ | 61,73 $ | 60,70 $ | 61,91 $ | 63,15 $ | 64,42 $ | 65,70 $ | 67,02 $ | 68,36 $ | 65,21 $ | 31,2% |
| LLS (US$/bbl) | | 72,17 $ | 68,53 $ | 65,80 $ | 65,10 $ | 66,39 $ | 67,71 $ | 69,05 $ | 70,42 $ | 71,82 $ | 73,26 $ | 69,03 $ | 23,7% |
| EDM (CA$/bbl) | | 83,20 $ | 78,27 $ | 74,06 $ | 73,05 $ | 74,51 $ | 76,00 $ | 77,52 $ | 79,07 $ | 80,66 $ | 82,27 $ | 77,86 $ | 23,1% |
| Henry Hub gas (US$/mmbtu) | | 3,42 $ | 3,19 $ | 2,92 $ | 2,96 $ | 3,02 $ | 3,08 $ | 3,14 $ | 3,21 $ | 3,27 $ | 3,34 $ | 3,16 $ | 9,2% |
| AECO gas (CA$/mmbtu) | | 3,46 $ | 3,13 $ | 2,72 $ | 2,71 $ | 2,76 $ | 2,82 $ | 2,88 $ | 2,94 $ | 2,99 $ | 3,05 $ | 2,95 $ | 21,4% |
| Exc. Rate (CAS/USD) | | 1,24 | 1,25 | 1,25 | 1,25 | 1,25 | 1,25 | 1,25 | 1,25 | 1,25 | 1,25 | 1,25 | -7,1% |
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Don't forget also ...
Assets value will soar much higher with Clearwater and Seal area (proven and probable reserves assay results !!! Only my O !
BEST QUARTER EVER IS COMING !!!!
Any comments !!?
GL LONGS !