RE:Buying Opportunity?Potential Reason's for Sell-off (I'll try to rank but pretty subjective):
1. Interest Rate Rising (Fed June hike was almost to the day the beginning of the downturn).
2. Liquidity Concerns (As you mention, sell the winners to cover the losses AND finincial paper selling NOT physical market selling (causing strip to sell off )
3. Manipulation of the Pricing curve (change the curve - you change future earnings - and the A.I. machines churn out new (undercommunicated) targets to NPV).
4. Freeport LNG surprise (really changed short-term sentiment for day-to-day NG strip out to March '23; and challenged/ raised exit NG winter storage numbers to Nov. 15 puting downward pressure on NG price strip).
5. Windfall tax (the further raise of Oil/Gas ignorance around politians to new incompetent levels (Binden Energy Minister Twisted comments; Binden Tweets aboout XOL and Gas stations; WH spokeperson Press conferences; NDP in CDA). BTW - if CDA tried this - likely an export tax not a windfall tax).
6. Recession Fears (an over estimation of demand loss during a recession - See Goldman Sach's and Ninepoint Energy analysis - very little demand loss is predicted).
7. War (long white paper needed to explain but let's just say geopolitical risk including export and import controls).
Likley lots more but those are the ones i have watched while choosing to re-buy and add to my postions in BIR/KEL/SDE/CPG as spikes down have occured. Energy security has now become an inflation hedge (the FED's won't get what they want 2% FF rate and 2% GDP growth rate so what do they do - re-raise the inflation target to get growth?) and a geopolitical hedge in addition to a supply/demand hedge - almost a form of reserve currency (behind USD). CDA will track US growth so inspite of all this mess, I like CDN E&P better than when i was buying the dip in March '20. All assets are ALWAYS risky; they are not GIC's...So buy more if and when you can... Thanks for all your contribution over the years Retired.... I hope this post adds some insights....and GLTA. TD12