RE:Rate HikeI think we're setting up for an rocky Fall. First, China is playing hard ball with zero covid measures but once they realize that is never going to happen and they come back online again their demand for oil will push us back up again towards the previous highs. Then, there's Putin cutting off supply to Western Europe/Germany this winter creating even more supply constraint. I am no oil bull, I actually don't like to trade it but my gut says we're in for some pain before it gets better.
marketsense wrote: Debt while its astronomical, is secondary to inflation. The thing is, inflation is the
poster child of debt. So the author of both conditions is gov't. They are both the
cause and effect. What they need is lower oil prices. To achieve that, demand
must be eased. A recession might provide that but at the cost of some bankruptcies and higher unemployment. That would be hard landing IMO.
A soft landing which is more preferable is a drop in oil price by increasing supply
without having to crank up interest rates. Biden adm is desperately trying to do this
with their SPR release and other measures. I don't know if they will succeed. I'm
going with a hard landing but with stubborn inflation. Supply issues will not be solved
by higher int rates and oil demand will remain strong. End result.......Stagflation.