Next US Fed Interest Rate Hike and OilOil prices came down after the US Fed raised its rate by 75 basis points on June 15/22
A 0.75% increase in US interest rates doesn't have much impact on the price of WTI. It increased the demand for US$, which in turn will reduce the price of internationally traded items priced in US$. Oil is one.
On the same day (June 15/22), WTI closed at US$117.59
The increase in US$ value could explain about a 2-3% decline in the WTI US$ price.
However WTI closed on Friday (July 15/22) at US$97.59. That is a 17% decline.
The large decline is explained by investors selling oil contracts because they are fearful of a economic contraction coming. Once the decline starts, it feeds on itself as short sellers try to profit on the price move.
In my view, the turning point occured on Thursday July 14/22, when oil fell to just above US$90, then turned upward.
This is why.
The US fed rate tracks the 2 year bond yield. The 2 year yield may or may not appear below from the following link. If not, look it up manually.
The US Fed rate is 1.5%. The 2 year bond yield was 3.13% on Friday July 15/22
When you look at the 2 year bond yield chart, you will see the last fed increase of 75% stopped the increase in the 2 year bond yield.
Since that 75bp fed rate hike, the 2 year bond yield has been fairly level, either just above or just below 3%.
The important observation is that the last fed hike, stopped the 2 year yield rise.
The second important thing, is it means the US Fed has about 1.5% more to go. After which its rate should be pretty close to the 2 year bond yield.
At that point the Fed goes back to zero increases or small 0.25% increases or decreases as it follows the 2 year bond yield.
The next US Fed meeting is on July 26-27
The Fed will increase its interest rate following that meeting.
The question is how much the increase will be.
Given that the 2 year bond yield has been flat since the last big rate increase, and given that the gap between the Fed rate and 2 year bond yield is 1.5%, its likely that fed will go half way. ie increase 0.75%, and see what the 2 year bond yield does afterwards.
The 2 year bond yield will likely drop or hold flat.
What the 2 year bond yield does, will determine the feds next increase.
One thing for certain, the 2 year bond yield stopped rising in mid June.
That means we now have a good idea about how high the US fed will go - ie about 1.5% more as of now.
This is important to the price of WTI, because a 3% fed interest rate is not enough to cause an economic decline in the US.
Without an economic decline, WTI price goes back up.
When WTI goes back up, so does the price of OBE, and all the comparables.
For those of you who are worried about an economic decline, and a possible decline in WTI, and signficant OBE/sector decline, start watching the 2 year bond yield for signs that will either support, or dismiss your fears.
The smartest money in the market is in the bond market. The 2 year bond yield is the best indication of a coming economic depression. The 2 year bond yield does not expect inflation to last long. It is not priced for a coming economic depression.
The 2 year bond yield is telling me that the WTI price decline is over (there will be price volitility, but without a coming economic depression, the trend should be up).
As the fear of economic depression disappears, so will the downward pressure on OBE et al.
Note, the mass media may try to get some headline from a technical recession (ie 2 quarters with a negative GDP result). A technical recession is irrelevant to oil demand.