RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Get ready for more merger mania in the pharma sector WC1000, it might be helpful to look at how the mining industry works. ONC and small mining development companies have some similarities. Both are time-bound (the mining companies by life of mine; small pharma companies by patent expiry). Both have a variety of development risks. Valuation in mining companies is usually done by a time-bound cost-benefit analysis - the valuation would be the NPV of the cost and benefit flows over the project lifespan, corrected for whatever risks exist at the time of analysis. A BP would likely value ONC the same way.
Existing share price, whatever it is, does not figure into the cost-benefit analysis as it is neither cost nor benefit. It's only a reflection of public sentiment in the moment. As we have seen, both mining exploration and pharma development companies have huge share price variations and those share prices cannot be realistically relied upon to calculate the actual company value. In fact, finding undervalued companies is partially the basis for Warren Buffet's MO.