RE:RE:Alberta Electricity 30-day rolling average $195.99/MWThe 30-day rolling average has broken through $250/MWhr, with spot prices as high as $900 during peak periods. Does anyone know what is driving these high prices?
While I think your estimate of Q3 price per MW is reasonable ($155/MWhr), you may be underestimating margins in Q3. In my view margins will expand. In Q2 revenue was $48 million, with EBITDA margins of $19 million. With Q3 forecast revenue of $60 million and no additional costs (flat natural gas, overhead), EBITDA in Q3 should increase by $12 million to around $31 million.
Odd that the company is buying back shares, the insiders are buying shares, operations are about to expand by 50% and the market does not care.
I would like to see the company start paying a modest dividend.