RE:0% chance Aucontraire ?
Good40, I've said previously that I appreciate reading about your insights and hearing your opinions. I'm sorry you have to suffer the drum-beat of a select few who are more interested in bashing than civil discourse and debate. But I digress.
Your point about there being multiple risks is spot-on. And yes they have to be considered in a combinatorial probability framework (ie., combinations of risks vs permutation, which is too complex for discussion here). In your hypothetical example, the risk is weighted equally but in real life, some variables are more "risky" than others (as you know).
COPL's risks are mounting (hence the share price) and it's on a razor's edge of collapsing (I hope not as a long-time holder). Unfortunately, they also don't have much in the back pocket to de-risk (like a decent balance sheet or institutions wanting to buy a strongly speculative company).