RE:RE:Nothing SpecialThe next few years will be very interesting.
They are too cloudy to see through with confidence.
It seems the energy situation is much worse than is being talked about - as in running out.
Green renewable energy - ie solar and wind, get all the attention.
However as much as the idea of getting something for nothing is appealing, solar and wind are not that.
Energy wise, we will be OK when a solar panel can make enough energy to make another similar solar panel.
Likewise, we will be OK when a windmill can make enough energy to make another windmill.
Unfortunately we are no where near that point today, and will never be. The laws of phyisics prohibit it.
The most effective solar energy capture method is photosynthesis. Its been tweeked for hundreds of millions of years.
But if you take a big tree, built from photosynthesis, there really isn't much energy in it. There is enough to heat your home for a while, and cook your food, and produce a little light, but thats it. The earliest steam trains, ran on wood - but they couldn't pull much.
Sadly, all the resources being put into solar panels and windmills is being flushed down the toilet - for the simple reason that they do not produce enough energy to create another of themselves. ie, they are energy negative.
On the one hand, you could argue that its smart to use fossil fuel energy to build solar panels and windmills - because you'll get 10 ish years of energy out of them before they break - essentially buying 10 years more after the end of oil.
For those who want to use the energy of the sun, they have to use the same thing the sun uses - nuclear fusion.
Presently fusion requires more energy than it produces - and thats just considering the energy of the reaction.
It you add in the energy to construct the fusion facilty itself, then nuclear fusion is highly energy negative.
Even if you could create an energy positive nuclear fusion reaction on earth, it is unlikely to be possible to make it energy positive when you factor in the cost of the facilities.
All we have presently, that is energy positive is fossil fuels, hydro dams, and nuclear fission. The last two take years to build. There are not many places left on the planet suitable for new hydro dams. Nuclear fission facilities work well, except for disposing of the used fuel, and the huge amount of time it takes to get them built (the US has only built 1 nuclear reactor in the 21st Century).
It looks like oil production is now at its peak (or close enough), while oil demand is continuing to grow.
This is now.
What happens next year - 2023. Maybe its a flat year, with oil demand holding flat, with stored oil in strategic reserves, and Iran, filling the deficit as supply starts to decline.
Then what happens in 2024?
By then, strategic reserves are essentially empty - supply decline will continue - probably at an increasing rate. The only way to reduce demand to match the available supply will be to let price increase until some stop buying.
Then what happens in 2025?
By then, you are looking at unemployment in all those places that can't afford to opperate with $200-300 barrel oil - in Europe we have Nikel and Aluminum smelters shut because the cost of energy is already too high. I understand fertilizer plants are also producing at low rates, or are closed.
Now you get reduced demand from high unemployment - its a full recession.
What happens if I'm off by 12 months - well then the above happen one year later.
Russia is fine - its got all the fossil fuel it needs. The middle east is fine (at least the oil producers).
Canada is fine - its got all the fossil fuel it needs. The US is likely buying everything it can get from Canada.
No idea about the rest. China, Japan, India, South America and Asia will depend on how fast they can build nuclear fusion reactors.
The green fools claim the earth will burn up by 2030 (8 years).
I'm thinking they may have the time right, but the reasons wrong.
When the World runs out of fossil fuel it creates the perfect conditions for war.
I don't know whats coming. I do think the next 5 years could bring change that very few are thinking about today.
Solar panels, windmills, and nuclear fission are getting billions and billions going their way - and its all for nothing. A solar panel will never make enough energy to build another solar panel - likewise for windmills.
A successful oil well produces enough energy to drill many more - the excess energy from oil wells runs the world we all live in.
Like the Saudi's have warned - the world should be using these resources to look for more fossil fuel reserves. The failure to do so, has the potential to create massive job loss, economic decline, and war. We will see it first happen in Europe.
When Europe stops making steal, and stops making cars, then you know its going down.
Right now its just Aluminum, Nikel and Fertilizer - which is not a big deal unless you work there, becuase their global market share is relatively small. But its the start of something. (and yes, this started before Russia and Ukraine increased their hostilities).
Hopefully the US elections in Nov will slow the process - but in reality what can they do to stop it? Most of them probably don't even know the above is happenning. They are mostly all talking about a fake climate emergency, while the real energy emergency is happening in an empty room next door.
How do we profit from this? Personally I'm invested in the cheapest oil I can find in Alberta.
If supply declines and demand stays the same, price must rise. That should be good for shareholders of oil producers.
If supply declines and demand declines as a result, the price should still rise (just not as much). That should be good for shareholders of oil producers.