RE:The way I look at it In order to pay more than 50 cents a quarter, LIF has to deliver decently. In another word, the iron ore demand keeps up. If China helps Russia and gets sanction, the Chinese demand will disappear. The alternative will be the rebuild of Ukrane which may not start until end of the year. If America's rebuilt American starts, this could pump up the demand that replaces China.
Recession is coming. How will this affect the rebuild of Ukraine and America? It will pretty depending on how deep the recession is. The purpose of rate hike is to induce a recession that reduces economic activity. Rebuild America may cancel that effect.
There are many moving parts. As clear as mud.