GREY:VITFF - Post by User
Comment by
MVargason Oct 05, 2022 3:20pm
128 Views
Post# 35007498
RE:RE:RE:RE:q3
RE:RE:RE:RE:q3HoneyBadger, thanks for your thoughts, but I really do have to take issue with some of your points (below in bold).
HoneyBadger77 wrote:
At the risk of being labeled a conspiracy theorist, is it just possible that VG management is perhaps intentionally not proactively addressing these issues because they want to keep the share price down while they proved up more ounces at Eagle and Raven?
I think McConnell is convinced they have a district scale resource and not just a single mine and he is hell bent to prove it and has no interest in selling VG until the Raven deposit in particular is better understood.
I fail to see the logic in intentionally keeping the share price low to discourage a takeover. Although McConnell acts like he owns the company, the company is owned by the shareholders and a low share price invites a low-ball hostile bid that disgruntled shareholders may happily accept.
From the Raven drill results so far, they are definately onto something there and the upcoming Raven drill results, which we should start seeing over these next few weeks / months will tell the tale.
Yes, Raven does look promising and a much better option than buying into Banyan. In mid-August JM said "look for Raven drill results the first week in September". What a surprise that there aren't any yet. The only Raven drill results released this year were from 2021 drilling. Meanwhile BYN started issuing drill results from 2022 drilling in May. Banyan's VP of Exploration is none other than Paul Grey, the same Paul Gray who is Victoria's VP of Technical Services. His entire compensation is paid by Victoria.
McConnell has about 750,000 shares at an average share price of about $8.00 bucks and he hasn't sold a single share and recently bought a few more (albeit a small amount).
There is no way than McConnell's average share price is anywhere near half that cost. Most of his shares were acquired through exercise of cheap options where he sold previously acquired shares through option exercise to finance the exercise of new options.
Banyan apparently has about 4 million (probable) ounces and VG about 3.2 million (proven and probable) ounces (as per 2019 Technical Report), but that's not including the ~ 2 million ounces that I expect will be added when the 2019 Technical Report is updated later this year.
Banyan doesn't have any "probable" ounces yet. Probable is a term used to describe "reserves", but Banyan doesn't even have any measured and indicated resources - much less "reserves.". Victoria has (2019 Tech. report) 3.2 million ounces of reserves, plus 1.5 million of M&I resources and 0.57 million ounces of inferred resources. Raven has 1 million of inferred ounces.
So from this perspective, are this year's mine operations issues as serious as they seem? Are these issues being seen by VG management as an advanatge in helping to keep the share price down and a takeover at bay until the time is right? Frankly, I don't know but VG has a very experienced upper management team and I find it difficult to believe they can't get the mine operations issues addressed and production up to 200K per year if they really want to.
Sure, smart strategy to consistently miss forecasts to keep the share price down to keep a takeover bid at bay. You can't be serious.
A very experienced upper management team? Check out the Chief Operating Officer, Mark Ayranto's bio. He has no prior operating experience. He needs to go, but there is little danger of that as he is one of Victoria's old boys club.
In my opinion, today's 15% drop in share price is a great buying opportunity for those with a longer term view. In the meantime, the day traders and short sellers are enjoying these little blips so have fun for now.
A drop from the 52-week high of $19.90 is not a little blip. This has given shorters an opportunity to cover.
Some shareholders are forgetting that VG has incurred a lot of expenses in 2022 (truck shop, water treatment plant, drilling, etc) that are lowering EPS, but these major expenses will be behind us in 2023 and unless the gold price tanks considerably over the next 12 months, I expect VG is going to do very well in 2023.
Perhaps but one-time expenses like truck shop and water treatment plant do not factor into EPS - they are capital expenditures.