RE:RE:RE:RE:q3Greatdaysahead wrote: Now with this ops issue, the set back will be terrible.
let's assume three weeks of downtime... Are we expecting now a 4Q production around 40-45K instead of 55K (3 weeks downtime/13 weeks = 23%. Let's say 50% recovery on this missed time = 12% production decreased in 4Q..)
MVargas, I am sure you can provide a better estimated with these assumptions ?
gda, I think your assumptions are reasonable, but who knows until we get a revised forecast and actual results. I expect a bit of a lowball new forecast that they expect to beat so that they can again trumpet that production exceeded the (revised) forecast as they did last year.
There is more confusion and conflicting statements in the news release which states that "During this temporary outage, opportune maintenance on the crushing circuits will be performed", but that "Mining and ADR operations are not impacted and continue to perform normally."
Normal Mining operations include loading and hauling ore to the primary crusher where it is crushed and conveyed to the secondary crushers or held in short-term stockpile. If primary crushing is not suspended, then there should be minimal impact on the tonnage stacked on the HLP in Q4 as the crushing capacity of the secondary/tertiary crushers is a nominal 40,000 tpd compared to the nominal design capacity of the primary crusher of 30,000 tpd. The original design was based on 12 months of primary crushing and 9 months of secondary crushing and conveying to the HLP. Therefore in theory, if the primary crusher continues to oerate for 13 weeks in Q4, the secondary/tertiary crushers should be able to crush all of that material in Q4.
OTOH, if all of the crushers undergo maintenance in Q4, then there is probably no need to suspend any operations in 2023 as the planned 1-month shutdown was primarly meant for equipment maintenance.