Share Price???Anyone have any ideas what is holding this share price back?
I am long EOG and have spent a good amount of time doing my due diligence. Starting to think I may have missed something big along the way though.
Gil can be over bullish at times over promising deadlines etc. (eg. imo we won't drill Orinduik until 2H2025 because it needs to be drilled Jan 26') often painting things with rose coloured glasses on. But the fact that we have now spud Gazania, just a few weeks from results (thinking mid-November) the share price shouldn't be lagging this low, unless I have missed something badly.
On success, we are conservatively worth $2.50, and with about a 40% chance of success (again conservatively) you are getting 500% return right now with a downside of maybe 20% on failure. ($2.50 on success, $0.40 on failure). Add the other potential catalysts in the near future with 3B/4B farmout announced within the next couple of months, even on failure we should be higher then we are now.
By the time results are announced, I would have expected the share price to be in the $1.10 +- $0.15 range (and we still might get there). It is not uncommon to see the share price north of 50% of what you would expect on a successful drill... why is the lagging so low?
So I ask all of you, what have I missed?