Starsearcher80 wrote: Nice post BBDB859. Thank you. I agree fully with everything you've said here. Absolutely, there is manipulation of the share price, and what looks to be a very active effort either to shake shares out, and/or box the stock. A lot of shareholders get really annoyed by this. Personally, ok it's annoying, but I take it as an absolute sign that some big entities want a LOT of shares, and are willing to activiely play whatever game possible to get those shares. While annoying, it IS ultimately a massive vote of confidence for the stock.
The other point too is once these entities have the shares they want (often at an overall increasing price by the way), they will then actively promote and move the stock to much higher levels. Of course, we don't seem to complain about that manipulation as much...don't know why. ;)
The accumulation pattern for Bombardier has, at times been vicious starting with the forced drop to $18. The second round of vicious, down to $24ish from $34ish I really didn't anticipate (I'm still annoyed by that), but the overall market certainly contributed to the effort and made it easy. And sure enough, now we're seeing accumulation at levels that are now regularly increasing. If I had to guess, I think the accumulation phase is coming to an end very soon. We're now going into anticipation of the 3rd and then 4th quarter, both of which will cast the company in a very strong (and more important, sustained) light. It makes sense to motivate that stock upwards, along with the strong updraft that will already be their courtesy of the quarterly numbers and sentiment.
These games, overall, are fairly predictable when there is very good reason to get into a stock, as is the case with Bombardier. Do I expect a strong updraft here starting now and through the next few months? Absolutely. While you can't fight those forces, you certainly can know the game(s) and play along with them. Imho, the move up from here will be powerful, if not the kind of move we all think is well deserved for the stock.
Enjoy.
BBDB859 wrote: Hi Club.
I hope your last half of the summer was good. Mine was good. Although Europe is realing with all kinds problems right now, If you're not travelling in the EU you're ok. This time I changed my normal mentality, of travel to other European countries, while I'm in Europe. Because of this chaos.
Macro is affecting the commercial aviation industry for the time being. But the BJ are travelling all over the place. This just goes to show how the ultra rich don't have the same travelling restrictions. They're all making more money with this upheaval. In fact they're travelling more.
This will boad well for the Bomber. The backlog will grow in Q3 and thus provide a cushion for their LTD repayment. As far as how much the market controls, or to your point manipulates the Bomber SP? I don't think that we can control what their actions and reasons for that manipulation are. I do know one thing though. They can't keep the price the down to pre-split levels with such a small float.
The Market Makers are going to take this SP up once they've accumulated most of the the shares during this manipulation period. I noticed that they took the price down to around $25 while I was away. But then they've moved it back up to more realistic values at $30. To me even $30 is much less, than the stock value. In my mind the share value is more in the $120 range. But at this point it's hard to justify those high SP's even with a small float. The point being that 2023 is the turnaround point, and I'm picking March 28th/2023 as that date. The LTD is the key there, and more of it is going to be paid down in 2023. The key indicator for the Plan is, the FCF. If Revenues and +FCF will all start rising in 2023. Then we'll know that EM's Plan is working.
BTW. Every stock is feeling this pain right now. So I think we're holding our own here given the enviroment we're in. Cheers
clubhouse19 wrote: 859
The question is not really whether the bomber is turning the itself around as we can assume confidently that it is, but rather whether the market has seen the bottom yet. There is going to be multiple bear market rallies as you have seen and are seeing now as far as I am concerned.
The shorting during the last 2 weeks IMO tells me it is
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BBDB859 wrote: from the high of $34.
I'm sure those gains will be returned soon, & more, as the Q4 ER will be coming in a few of weeks.
Sham/July what's the final tally on the Q3/22 deliveries, from your best estimation. The Bomber had to deal with some Engine delivery delays, as we know from the last ER in Q2/22, but hopefully they weren't major for the Quarter.
Some thoughts.
I'm hoping that we are all thankful for the BT sale. That was a great move, by Bombardier.
-They were able to save what was left of the company.
-They paid down the LTD.
-They have cash on hand to pay down debt even further in the years to come.
-They are focussed on the one industry that was profitable for them.
-I'm sure the Backlog in the BJ industry will keep growing.
-Hopefully this ordeal with the French theves from Alstom will be over soon.
-Alstom is just wasting time, so they don't have to pay the rest of the money.
-I'm sure we could have gotten more for BT. But this was the destiny of BT.
-For the cheaper sale to Alstom, we got a great upside from the BJ's for 2 years.
This quarter will show us the continuation of the +FCF Quarters of the future. I can't wait for the total transformation of the company, when all the Service Centers are completed by the end of the year. Then the completion of Pearson is nearly here as well, in H1/23, which will change the total Revenue ability of the company. So keep your hats on BBD.B LT Investors, your payday will finally be here in 2023. You all deserve it, it's been a long time coming.