RE:I'm still buying
redcoats wrote: on any weakness, which is pretty easy to do right now. They're making decent coin, and increasing market share. Better to buy during these times, instead of when the market turns, as the price will ramp up rather sharply when the market does.
Grab some popcorn. It's going to be a long time before the market turns. The Fed funds futures has a terminal Fed funds rate of 5.25% in June 2023 up 150 basis points from todays levels. If one looks at history for any guidance, the market always bottoms after the Fed funds rate has peaked. The markets will likely bottom in 2023 or beyond as rates continue higher. Don't fight the Fed.
The only time in history (post world war 2) when the market bottomed before the Fed funds rate peaked was the soft landing that occurred in 1995 and 1984 and the first of 2 recessions in the 80's. The Fed funds reached 6% in June 1995, and the market bottomed one year earlier on April 1994. We averted a recession because real economic growth was strong in both 1984 and 1995 which is the opposite of how the story is playing today. In 1984, the market bottomed one month earlier and we avoided a recession. The 1980 recession would see the market bottoming on March 1980 before the Fed funds rate peaked at 19.04% on July 1981. However, one year later and the second recession, the market bottoms again in 1982.
Now when you add the operating costs of a bank to a long term treasury yield it's easy to see a 30 year fixed mortgage approaching 8%.
Urbanimmersive needs to pay down debt and become profitable before investors pay it any attention. Now add the macro backdrop and it's going to be a long winding road for investors.