global commercial aircraft fleet size - actual and forecastThis comment in the Q3 financial report prompted me to do some investigation into the 25,000 aircraft management presently sees as the market for its products.
BT, CEO Flyht, Q3 report: "We are currently working on multiple large scale request for proposals (RFPs) for several major industry players. With the only device coming to market capable of 3G/4G/5G transmission as 3G sunsets across the globe, we believe we are in a strong position to pursue a meaningful share of the 25,000 aircraft that require these data services – we estimate the total addressable market value to be a $750 million hardware and $3 billion software opportunity." A company/website called Oliver Wyman (oliverwyman.com) regularly reports on the size of the commercial aviation fleet and the factors that affect it. In their reporting, I can see where Flyht may have gotten the 25,000 number in their statement.
From the report, Oliver Wyman's statement of a global fleet size of 25,578 aircraft and their prediction of a global fleet size of 38,189 by 2032 dramatically increases Flyht's estimate of the addressable market going forward. If the number of aircraft is expected to increase, then the hardware and software sales opportunity should also increase proportionally.
Additionally, and in this same report, the MRO (maintenance, repair and operations) market of which Flyht can be considered a part (if, for nothing else, the CrossConsense subsidiary) is predicted to grow also.
Read Oliver Wyman’s Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast Commentary 2022–2032 here...
https://www.oliverwyman.com/content/dam/oliver-wyman/v2/publications/2022/feb/MRO-2022-Master-file_v5.pdf From the report's Foreward...
"The year’s research focuses on airline fleet recovery and growth in the wake of unprecedented
challenges from the coronavirus pandemic as well as related trends affecting aftermarket demand,
maintenance costs, technology, and labor supply. The outlook details how COVID19 has
significantly disrupted traffic, fleet dynamics, and MRO. Understanding these marketplace realities
is vital to making wellinformed business decisions and developing strategic longterm plans for
the aviation industry.
As you will read in the report, the next few years are pivotal for industry recovery as COVID19,
economic forces, traveler sentiment, and government policies compel the industry to re-imagine its
future."
Abbreviated snippet from a table that includes regional data...
FLEET AND MRO FORECAST SUMMARY
| Aircraft type | World, 2022 | World, 2032 |
| | | |
| Narrowbody | 15,235 | 24,285 |
| Widebody | 4,839 | 7,347 |
| Regional jet | 3,275 | 3,788 |
| Turboprop | 2,229 | 2,769 |
| | | |
| Total | 25,578 | 38,189 |
Notably, in this 63-page report prepared for 2022, the word "Ukraine" does not appear. Oliver Wyman has accounted for this in an October update to their report.
https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2022/oct/global-fleet-and-mro-market-forecast-update-2022.html In the update, the 2032 fleet size is predicted to be 37,392, smaller by 2% than the initial report predicted, yet still significanlty higher than the present 25,578.