RE:RE:Laurentian Bank the source of rally I think their problems will come by much harder later. Generally they are really tied to the housing market and I think we are going to see a lot of defaulting down the line, probably in 2024-2026 because people who refinanced low during the pandemic or even in 2019 are going to have to pay 2-4x their rate now. Since CIBC is the most leveraged of the big 5 on Canadian housing it will mean they will be the most at risk of that. I don't personally think housing prices will recover until after that cycle because people will be trying to sell into it causing price declines.
I can't predict too far into the future but I think Alberta will be ok as their prices didn't have the same rapid rising trend that happened in almost every other province until the tail end of the trend of moving during the pandemic. To me this is one of the primary reasons I want to keep my GH holdings and some other Alberta centred stocks since they will likely be minimally impacted by any sort of credit crunch on consumers since they didn't have the same trends and have a strong job market due to a commodity super cycle. Alberta is building enough housing with good zoning laws to seemingly avoid the problems that are plaguing BC and ON where they are urban sprawling and making their entire economy focused on housing instead of productivity.