RE:RE:RE:Cash flow comparison on $bne threadchurchofnutsacc wrote: sclarda wrote: TheRexmember wrote: CPG cash flow forecast at 4.04 per share next year, stock at 9.60, TD has a target price of 18.50.
BNE cash flow is forecast at 4.60 next year (74.00 oil, 4.00 AECO), share price 6.90 - target price???
Higher than 18.50 I guess.
At the current shareprice CPG has a market cap. of aprox. $5.3 billion with aprox. $1.2 billion in net debt and will generate aprox. $1.1 billion in Free Cashflow next year at $75 oil. or aprox. 21% return
A the current shareprice BNE has a market cap. of aprox. $250 million with aprox. $160 million in net debt and will generate aprox. $45 to $50 million in Free Cashflow next year at $75 oil. or aprox. 19%
So CPG has aprox. 23 times the Free Cashflow of BNE at $75 oil but only aprox. 7 times the net debt.
Next year CPG at $75 oil will produce aprox. $1.1 billion in Free Cashflow on aprox. 135 000 barrels per day of production. BNE will produce aprox. $45 to $50 million in Free Cashflow on aprox. 13 500 barrels per day production.
This means that whle CPG will produce aprox. 10 times the oil as BNE next year at $75 oil they will be producing aprox. 23 times the Free Cashflow.
When you boil it down CPG is a much larger producer than BNE and has much lower relative debt and produces aprox. 2.2 times the Free Cashflow per barrel than does BNE. Probably a good part of the reason BNE has to pay loan shark 12% interest rates on their debt.
While it is good to be positive on a stock you are purposely not subtracting the large Capex amount that BNE will be spending next year to make it look like they are doing bettter than they are in comparison to CPG. to pump this stock
Shame on you Pumper.
It's entirely disingenuous to menetion CPG and not bring up acqusitions. CPG need to replace their reserves. A lot of that free cash flow is not going back to investors. It will be going to overpay for reserves.
You may need to learn to read a little better as i am not the one who brought up CPG it is that other pumper who did.
Multiplying BNEs current market cap. Free Casfhlow at $75 oil and debt by aprox. 22 times to equal CPGs i come up with aprox. $ 1.05 billion in Free Cashflow and aprox. $3.3 billion in Debt. for BNE on an equivalent basis. Which means that on a relative basis BNE has aprox. 3 times the debt of CPG with a bit less Free Cashflow.
So basically CPG has a couple Billion dollars less of debt than BNE to replace reserves etc. Of course no other oil company can compare to BNE as it never has to replace its reserves. It can keep burning up 13 000 barrels of day of resources and never have to replace them.
At $75 oil BNE next year will bring in aprox. $180 milliom in Cashflow and spend aprox. $125 million in Capex. leaving aprox. $45 to $ 50 million. To do that they will have to use up aprox. 5 million barrels of oil resources next year which will use up most of the Free Cashflow to replace. Seems like they are spinning their wheels at $75 oil.
BNE will need oil prices of $85 next year to be making any money. Of course at that price a lot of oil companies will be doing well. At the beginning of this year BNEs shareprice was in the $5.70 range. This year BNE payed down aprox. $120 million in debt. The current shareprice one year later after all that debt reduction is now $6.65 If BNEs shareprice has only gone up $1 in the last year while paying down $120 million in debt how much will the shareprice rise by the end of next year if they only pay down another $40 million in debt as they estimate at $75 oil?
I am not here to bash BNE or tell people to load up on its shares. Of course everybody can do what they want its just when i look at the real numbers they dont add up to what pumpers like you and that other fellow keep saying.
The Bankers who know the real numbers here are making BNE pay 12% interest. That is a lot higher than most oil companies. I am sure BNE shopped around and 12% interest rate is the best deal they could get?
Reality again does not seem to add up to what the pumpers on this board say.