Above 52 close is just the startIf we didn't reach 120 delivery then it will be done in 1Q 2023 before Q4 2022 report. Although I think 120 was delivered while we dont have visibility on it.
Aftermarket sales will be new high and will add to postive cash flow. We will finally see postive cash flow reported in Q4 2022.
Backlog is solid with $15 Billion USD. Bombardier has flexline so if the backlog is shrinking, Bombardier with flexline can adjust their delivery numbers to be b2b of 1.0 or higher. Flexline can also address supply chain constraints.
During 2008 meltdown most Jet buyers deffered/delayed their orders and did not cancel their orders outright. In 2023 the recession might impact delivery but I think Bombardier already said they will deliver less in 2023 then in 2022 due to supply chain. So I think recession reduction wont have much impact on Bombardier.
Recession will impact airlines more, this will cause reduction in frequency and canceling of some routes. This will help with Challenger jet demand and increase utilization with fraction ownership. Recall, upcoming recession will impact smaller companies more then medium and large cap companies. It is medium and large cap business that are thriving and use bizz jets.
2023 will be year of green for Bombardier.