RE:Set up for 2023 Year end is a meaningless line in the sand when it comes to reversal of business fortunes
We can predict what will happen with 99% certainly. It's the time line that we can't predict
Remove the timeline and investment outcomes go from speculative to certain
Everything we hoped would happen in 2022 is still going to happen. There is a high probability those things will happen in 2023
The bulk of the Chinese population will have been infected by Covid (and most of them recovered) 2 weeks from now
ie the Chinese Covid wave peak will occur before Jan 15
By Jan 15 China will be on the other side of their Covid wave and infected numbers will be falling very fast
Each major city will have its own wave, and peak date. The biggest, most densely populated cities will reach their peaks soonest
All of which means China is going to be effectively over Covid much sooner than you may expect. It's not months, it's weeks
Once that peak has passed it's back to business as usual as fast as possible for China
China's transportation fuel demand is going to have a massive increase from Dec 15 to Jan 15
I recently saw stats claiming that Chinese
Highway travel was down 82% ish. That will reverse.
China has a real estate problem but the government has the ability to support that sector.
That means 1-4 million boe demand is about to show up