RE:RE:RE:RE:Above 52 close is just the startMy 2 cents worth on the subject.
I don't think a delivery varience of a plane or 2, either up, or down, will impact any Quarter. That's $100M varience, in Revs either way. It's better for the Balance sheet, to be an increase by $100M of course in the Quarter than a decrease. But the shareholders are not going to overeact on the SP either up or down on $100M. I think what we are seeing in this company's Management is, that they want the Financial stability, through a steady stream of Revenues every Quarter.
Don't forget that, if they don't deliver a plane or 2 for a Quarter, it will go on to the next Quarter. What's the big deal? But Q4/22 is great in Revs either way, and transfering some to Q1/23 isn't going to change things. Strategically, the increase in Revs would look better for Q1/23 than Q4/22. Q4/22 is going to be monstrous in Revs either way. So what's the difference if we have 1 or 2 less. Btw, I think that they will show 120 delivered at least. I think Temp is right with Witchita, and 2 or 3 deliveries for defense.
To me the biggest impact on the SP will be, LTD repayment. If they reduce it, down to $4.9B (Net LTD $3.5B) in 2023, which I anticipate they will, starting Q1/23? Then we'll see a huge uptick on the SP in 2023.
Don't get me wrong here, deliveries every Quarter are Important on Revs. But this Management has taken control of Revs, thus they control delieveries to meet the right amount of Revenues per Quarter. And the Backlog has become the variable to control Revs Quarterly as well. Don't forget that we are Balancing out our Revs Quarterly with Service Revs as well. So who knows what's going on in Q4/22, on the Service side? The Service Revs may have gotten $100M higher this final Quarter? They've got Biggin Hill going this Q too. So only the company knows their Balance sheet Quarter by Q.
I think 2023 will see a 10% to 15% increase in production, not 15% to 20% as predicted, just because of the Recession in 2023. Plus the Pearson Facility opening was pushed forward to Q1/24 so that will impact the 5% production reduction in production increase for 2023.
So sit back and relax everybody. Enjoy the show.
Happy New Years Eve to everyone!!!!!!
Truthifest wrote: Of course production flexibility is a good thing, but not meeting guidance never is, especially given lingering investor skepticism of the company.
If they're short in Q4 deliveries, time will have to be spend finishing and delivering them next year, time that would have been spent on 2023's production and deliveries. Maybe not a lot of time, but not a good development nonetheless. Investors will likely be most interested in the problem's reason(s). If minor, then maybe no haircut to the stock price. But if not, maybe not.
If mgmt significantly cuts 2023 guidance, look out below. That would mean a rapid deterioration, which investors hate, of course. Does anyone else here think 2023's deliveries will be cut way back to 2022's level?
stockitnow wrote: Flexline is short for flexibility of changing units to build based on demand for month/quarter/year etc.
Most OEM does that. You have heard of boeing and Airbus increases and decreasing number of aircraft builds to meet market demnd? If you haven't heard of flexline then it doesn't mean it doesn't exits.
If those 4 not delivered in 2022 will be in 2023. Its not like those orders disappear. As for 15 to 20% on increase, then its good, but with recession and supply chain it will be closer to 2022 delivery. And as flexline Bombardier wont have problem making it.
Again those 15 to 20% increase is not dissappearing it would be deffered/delayed. This recession is expected to last few quarters. Not long enough to make impact on backlog.
Truthifest wrote: Company mgmt has twice told us that 2023 delivery guidance is 15-20% greater than 2022's "at least 120", most recently during the Q3 results call.
The folks here love to track exports. The total so far is 116. The deficit of at least 4 is large. How would it be made up?--intra-Canadian sales possibly, for 1 or 2? Exports Sat Dec 30? Can't tell if lb1's post suggests the workers won't work tomorrow or not. Anyway, the company already had a shortage, of 1 IIRC last Q, would hate to see another shortage this Q, especially if the reason is not good, such as refusals or increasing engine supply snags.
"Flexline"? Sorry, haven't heard of that. Sounds wonderful--cures backlog problems and supply change problems. Flexline should run for President. ;-)
Post Great Recession, private jet industry sales fell hard and stayed down for a decade. Anything but a light recession might be terrible for Bomber and the stock.