RE:RE:RE:RE:re;REITREDCEO2016....is that You OATS ?...wink/wink....All that said the base businss could surprise. The Symrise deal was expected to potentially accelerate sales and the hunt for new opportunities will be one year in. CZO's new CMO is also on the hunt for new opportunities. Gilles talked about opportunities in the Small Cap Discoveries interview. There are also new market opportunities like Japan. Symrise is focused on cosmetics and avenanthramide could also be used in food. Another 15% growth for 2023 could result in $3 million in additional revenue and $1.5 million in gross margin assuming 50% gross margin. A recession could be tough on the Canadian dollar and that can be good for CZO as an exporter. The avenanthramide clinical trial is also relatively small compared to the beta glucan trial and CZO managed that. We will find out how smooth the scale-up of PGX has gone with coming updates.
Ciao wrote: Spot on, financials will not be great, they are good enough to support the R&D pipeline development.
Catalysts for the stock that could help sustain a move would be an out-licensing deal or some partnership announcement.The market will look for the next deal once the first is announced. That first deal will be the commercial validation of PGX that we have been waiting for.
It's good to see that oat prices have dropped 50% and we are back to more normal levels.
Oat prices prophetoffactz wrote: Retiredceo2016 wrote: As I indicated - 2 good quarterly financial releases continuing the positive trend will move the stock price. First back to the 80 cent range and then over $1....give it 6 months!
Those focused on the financial results may be disappointed. This company is transitioning to a biopharma and it will have associated clinical trial costs and the costs of scaling up PGX. This story is increasingly about the pipeline which has key catalysts in 2023.
Q4 is also usually CZO's weakest quarter. On an annual basis, however, the annual results typically presented in April, should demonstrate double digit growth consistent with the last decade:
“Looking ahead, we believe Ceapro is well-positioned to once again deliver significant growth in sales, well in line with the positive trend achieved in recent years." News release
With the annual results in April CZO could affirm growth for its base business for 2023. Q1 comes about one month later.
Gross margin depends on the crop. CZO has used up inventory from a particularily good crop which could weaken margins in coming quarters. Offsetting this the Canadian dollar is down signfiicantly vs. the US dollar. Q1 and Q2 tend to be CZO's strongest and going into Q1 and Q2 this year the Canadian dollar will be down materially. Q1 and Q2 were unusually strong last year and may have been the result of building invenstory for the new Symrise deal. We are one year into the Symrise deal and it expected potential acceleration. Time will tell if new demand has been generated for the base business. CZO's new CMO has been working with Symrise. There are also untapped markets such as Japan that could be added. As a risk, we have gone through a difficult time for many financially due to inflation and a potential recession looms. CZO has tended to be resilient historically and a lower Canadian dollar can help offset difficulties due to the consumer.