Join today and have your say! It’s FREE!

Become a member today, It's free!

We will not release or resell your information to third parties without your permission.
Please Try Again
{{ error }}
By providing my email, I consent to receiving investment related electronic messages from Stockhouse.

or

Sign In

Please Try Again
{{ error }}
Password Hint : {{passwordHint}}
Forgot Password?

or

Please Try Again {{ error }}

Send my password

SUCCESS
An email was sent with password retrieval instructions. Please go to the link in the email message to retrieve your password.

Become a member today, It's free!

We will not release or resell your information to third parties without your permission.

Robex Resources Inc V.RBX

Alternate Symbol(s):  RSRBF | V.RBX.WT

Robex Resources Inc. is a Canada-based gold mining company. The Company owns two assets in the prospective Birimian Greenstone belt: the Nampala producing gold mine in Mali, and the Kiniero Gold Project in Guinea (Conakry). The Kiniero Gold Project is a 470 square kilometers (km2) package of mining licenses in the prolific Siguiri Basin, Guinea, and consists of the adjacent Kiniero (mining) and Mansounia (exploration) licenses which host numerous deposits. The Nampala Gold Mine is located in the Republic of Mali, approximately 250 kilometers (km) southeast (335km by road) of the capital of Bamako, 45 km northwest of the Syama Mine (operated by Resolute Mining Limited) and 91 km southwest of the Morila mine (operated by Firefinch Limited). The mine is in the Sikasso administrative region. The property has a total surface area of c. 280km2 and consists of two parts: the Nampala exploitation permit covering 16 km2, including the Nampala mine, and five exploration permits.


TSXV:RBX - Post by User

Post by ABDPhilon Jan 23, 2023 9:53pm
559 Views
Post# 35241316

THE ADVANTAGE of time

THE ADVANTAGE of time
Considering the theory of efficient markets, the price of assets (SP) would reflect all available information. If markets were efficient, it would be impossible to do better than them, or worse. In this context, it is necessary to analyze the information available on Robex to try to verify the veracity of this theory.
 
Logically, the first check consists of analyzing the profitability parameters of the last 4 quarters (2021-Q4 to 2022-Q3). The earnings per share obtained for this period is 3.3 cents, which makes it possible to obtain a price-earnings ratio of 10 with an SP of 33 cents. Assuming that 10 is an adequate price-earnings ratio, regardless of the particularities of Robex, the efficiency theory seems to apply to the current SP.
 
For the next financial statements, the period will be shifted by 1 quarter, from 2022-Q1 to 2022-Q4. From now on, certain hypotheses can be calculated. In particular, the effect of the change in POG on international markets. In 2021-Q4, gold was sold at the price of CAD$2266 while in 2022-Q4 the average price was CAD$2351. For an equivalent quantity of ounce of gold sold, the profit difference would be +1,318,528$ CAD. On 601,203,403 shares, the change in earnings per share would be +0.2193 cents.

As of 2021-Q4, a provision of CAD$7,714,916 has been recorded for tax adjustments. Out of 601,203,403 shares, the disappearance of this provision in 2022-Q4 will increase earnings per share by +1.2832 cents. In the short term, I consider it best to limit the assumptions to these adjustments.
 
In 2022-Q4, the merger of the Sycamore business was completed, which required an addition to share capital. The quantity of outstanding shares is now 843,363,403. Consequently, the dilution of the adjustments limits the increase in net earnings to 0.1132 cents per share for a total of 3.4492 cents over 1 year. By respecting the price earnings ratio of 10, justified by the theory of efficiency, we can determine that the SP of Robex will be 34.5 cents after the publication of the annual financial statements. In short, the application of the theory of efficiency, which implies a persistence of the absence of speculation, hypothesizes that the SP of Robex will be stable for a few more months.
 
Otherwise, a return to speculation means that the valuation could adjust accordingly to numerous quantitative and/or qualitative criteria. In particular, the conclusion of the financing of the Kiniero project; the NPV of the Kiniero/Mansounia project; the amount of mineral reserves and resources; drilling results; the discovery of extension or new mineralized zones; the potential for growth in both internal and external operations; the value and potential of exploration permits; the migration of trading from the stock to Toronto; consolidation of shares; … Overall, a general increase in the valuation of gold companies which is consequent to the increase in POG; a feeling of protection against the risks of economic and/or security disasters; protection against the debasement of hard currencies; …
 
For Robex, this important list of events are all reasons that can justify an increase in SP in the short and medium term. Failing this, the start of the Kiniero plant, scheduled for 2024-Q1, will have the effect of increasing the overall production capacity by 4. The application of the theory of efficiency will necessarily be beneficial for the SP and with the contribution of some quantitative and/or qualitative criteria, the adjustment of the SP could be dizzying.
 
Considering that investor sentiment and/or the return of speculation are uncontrollable factors, TIME and patience are resources that must be had. Nevertheless, the financial results progression expected for the beginning of 2024 is worth the wait and accumulating shares during this period is definitely a good idea.

Before concluding for real, I must mention that the recent progression of the POG, and the persistence of this value in 2023, could generate ~12,000,000$ CAD of additional free casflow for the year. 

<< Previous
Bullboard Posts
Next >>