RE:RE:RE:How do we rate against - ATH, etc? Hey Kav and Westboro.
i think ATH is a far more valuable company than YGR - they spent an extra 3 billion or so, so they should be. . Now that they have zero net debt and they are a cash flow beast if oil stays up. Even their drilling side has some pretty good acreage. Their JV partner is a super major.
Hangingstone has been a relatively poor project but Leismer is very good for ATH. MEG is 4x the size by production, it's a one play focussed company and they also have some of the thickest, lowest cost oil sands acreage produced by SAGD. It also has a market cap over 6.4 billion dollars. Not really a fair comparison lol. Even CPG is only 5.5 billion.
I think ATH has been improving a few processes, doing some drilling and using gas liquids to boost recovery. Probably lots of de bottlenecking options they can spend on since they finally dealt with their debt issues.
ATH is probably a much better buy than YGR. The decline rates are still killing YGR and the gas weighting is too high. The liquids are mostly propane and butane - the oil cut is too low. Someone disagrees with me because they finally covered a pretty big short position that was in place for years. There was some comments on a bunch of DUCs I wonder if they were delayed because they wanted flush production going into a winter priced market? If so got unlucky there.
heavy crudes are likely to have a decent second half both due to less SPR volumes coming on the market and diesel demand- refineries get a lot more diesel out of heavies than light crude. Plus start up and line fill with the TMX will soak up some production in the fall.
YGR is very cheap but I have moved out of it until they start to actually hit their production forecasts and de-lever some more. Too many missed quarters. Even the Hydracapital guy has stopped following it.