We have no clue what Namibia will doIt's tempting to daydream about what a favourable court decision could do for DSM. But the reality is that we have no clue what the court and the Namibian government will do. The government that took away the licence is still in power and still in control, even if cases of corruption have come to light. The fact is, for the Namibia project to go ahead, it not only requires a 100% clear and timely court decision, but also the full support of the government. How likely are both of those conditions? We on the outside simply have no clue. Actually, maybe we do have a few clues including:
- The government's initial decision to withdraw the licence, which came out of the blue, demonstrating the unpredictability of this government.
- The repeated delays and stalling tactics in the legal process so far. There are probably endless ways that the court could avoid making a decision that directly results in the project being reinstated.
Of course you can make a lot of arguments as to why DSM should win, and of course management and its true blue supporters have been making those arguments. But suppose somebody approached you on the street and said, "Would you like to bet $10,000 on the possible outcome of a court case in Namibia?" What would you do? I think I'll pass.