Finished reading the FS after the ERSome highlights.
We've had a great year in 2022.
These figures below are rough, as they are done from my memory. Get exact figures yourselves from the Financial Statements (FS) from the Bomber site.
Comparing 2022 to 2023 & what to expect in 2023
-$FCF of $730M in 2022 on Revs of $6.9B.
-I expect Revs of 2023 to be $7.8B easy. EBITDA in 2023 of $1.3B.
-I expect FCF to be in the $500M (NET or +) in 2023. Because we have a lot of things to pay for. We have the $125M RVG for the CRJ. We have the $150M for Pearson completion. We have the $400M in Interest payment for LTD.
-And therefore, the remaining balance of $500M of +FCF is going mostly to LTD reduction. This year we'll have about $900M to throw on the LTD. So LTD should be down to $5B by the end of 2023.
-Net LT Debt will be in the range of $3.7B. This should bring EBITDA/LTD down to about 3.5X in 2023, as oposed to 4.6X in 2022.
-Q1/2023 will be a very light Revenue Quarter, because only around 20 planes will be delivered, just like Q1/22. So I expect a small loss will be shown because of heavy Interest payments, LTD Repayment, & RVG payments, etc. The good part of all this is, that we'll be done with the CRJ RVG, & Pearson, by the end of 2023.
-Q2/2023 should be a better quarter on Revs, and partially catch us up for the light Revs of Q/2023, with a lot more payment commitments for the Quarter.
-Q3/2023 & Q4/2024 will be a heavy plane delivery schedule. They will save the year for us, to get to the $500M +FCF I was talking about above.
-The Service sector is likely to mature to $1.7/8B in Revs as well. This will help in the Margin uptic for us to increase EBITDA to around 17%.
So 2023 for me has become a transition year for now, because they'll start going into Pearson at the end of Summer, for first half of 2024 Global deliveries. For those of you who know, I expected the Pearson move earlier, and hoped Pearson production to have started towards the Fall of 2023. Now we'll see that Global production, in the begining of 2024. So 2024 has now become the stronger financial year for me, and now 2023 has become just another transition year for me. But that doesn't mean that 2023 won't be a good year. On the contrary, 2023 will be a great year on the Financial Metrics for the company. I've stated the accomplishments I expect in 2023 above.
Some other notes.
-B2B should be in the 1.2/3 to 1 range for the first Half and then decline to 1 to 1 or 1 to .9 range at best, because of the heavy deliveries in the second half of 2023. So Backlog should stay around $14.5B for 2023.
In conclusion:
I expect 2023 to be a good year & 2024 to be a great year now. Everything, in every facet of the development of the company, is going to be completed at the end of 2023 now. That's the only update I have from reading the FS. Read them yourselves, to see if you can deduce anything else? This is "My Mileage". You do yours.