The big misconception Time and time again the usual suspects will tell you that China is building huge VRFBs and how this will lead to higher V prices. While the former is correct, the latter is not and here is why:
China is very different from "the West" when it comes to strategic planning and concerted efforts to dominate future markets (rare earths, solar panels, etc.). Several years ago when it became evident that long duration energy storage is going to play a pivotal role of future power supply infrastructure, China did a strategic assessment with regard to which technology they should use. They realized that while they were the No. 1 lithium
refiner globally (dependent mainly upon Australian spodumene), their own Lithium resources were 3rd tier and if they would go the Li-Ion route they would have to buy vast Lithium quantities from abroad. At the same time they knew that they had the best Vanadium resources in the world and could build an independent, self-sufficient Vanadium value chain. Not only would this solve the LDES problem but also provide the Chinese industry with an opportunity to offer best-in-class products all over the world in yet another future mega market.
Clearly the aim was to build the whole value chain domestically, including V ore, electrolyte and batteries. And it's not a "secret plan" at all, numerous official statements clearly explain the Chinese strategy. Some of the companies that ventured on the task several years ago are well known, huge conglomerates, the world's No.1 and No.2 Vanadium producers among them. in 2016 it was decided to build a "test case" in Dalian. Rongke Power built the 400MWh Dalian VRFB, the biggest V based battery in operation today. It was connected to the grid in September of 2022.
> Story link < More recently, several new VRFB projects have been announced in the PRC. Apparently the Dalian system performs to their expectations so they are ready to take the next step and grow. Just like it was the case with Dalian, the Vanadium will be domestically sourced, domestically processed into electrolyte and the batteries will be built domestically, too.
This is why these systems will NOT have much of an effect on global V prices. The marketing story of the western companies involved in the Vanadium space, though, will tell you the fairy tale that Chinese VRFBs will lead to higher V prices gobally. Vanitec and other Vanadium lobbyists will happily draw your attention to long lists of VRFBs announcements, batteries planned to be built all over the globe. However, if you deduct the huge Chinese systems from this list, there won't be much left. The rest are much smaller systems that account for a tiny fraction of global V production and will not have any major effect on Vanadium demand outside of China. If the future V demand from Chinese VRFBs was real, the Vanadium price would have skyrocketed on these announcements. It did not.
IMO, the Chinese VRFB industry could turn out to be more of a threat than an opportunity to western Vanadium miners. China has a well known history of building a sizable maket share in several industries, flush out the competition by selling at dumping prices and once western competitors have gone bankrupt or put their mines on care and maintenance, enjoying an almost monopoly. They then will even use it as a tool to
apply political pressure on other nations.
Bottom line: The "high V prices coming" carrot the Vanitec and other marketing guys are dangling before your nose is rotten to the core.