RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:BTE vs MEGBy my calcs, I get roughly 1.15 B fcf at 82-83 wti post merger. That's roughly 1.30 a share with 50% to shareholders.
If oil stays in the 80s, two things happen rapidly
1. Debt is reduced. Debt target to move to 75% shareholder returns is 1.5B. it will take about 7 quarters at 82-83 oil to hit that target. Much less obviously if analyst calls for 100 oil emerge
2. Significant cash dedicated to buybacks. Of the 1.15/2= 575 to shareholders, only 78 M is required to pay the dividend. So the float decreases. If the float decreases, the fcf per share increases.
This stock by end of 2024 is going to be producing around 1.5 a share fcf and it's going to kick out 75% of that to shareholders.