Victoria Gold Corp VITFF

VGCX 2023 Q1 Earnings Estimates -Analyst Consensus - Really?

[HoneyBadger77]

Tip Ranks has a VGCX 2023 Q1 earnings analysts consensus estimate of .13 cents a share - really?  Am I missing something?

They are estimating Q1 revenue of $92 to $98 million.  So at .13 cents a share and based on a share float of 64,523,000 shares outstanding, their estimates equate to a net profit of a mere $8,387,990 on $92-$98 million in revenue for Q1.

Since it appears to me that VGCX generally has a net profit margin of about 20%, using a rough $100 million in Q1 revenue equates about $20 million in net profit or about .31 cents a share, not 13 cents a share!  Perhaps they got the numbers inverted...lol.  Considering that the larger capital cost projects were completed in 2022 and largely expensed / applied to 2022 earnings, 2023 Q1 earnings shouldn't be dragged down too badly from what I can see.  So unless VGCX management has a surprise for us with some large unexpected expenses, Q1 numbers should in my opinion come in a lot better than the analyst consensus.  Then add in a positive Raven resources report (that is seen as being intentionally delayed) and VGCX share price should move up quickly to a more short term realistic valuation, Ihat I suspect is in the $13.00 - $15.00 range.

Now I admit I'm no accountant and didn't do a deep dive into my earnings estimate so if anyone out there believes my estimate is out of whack, please feel free to share your estimates with some explanation of how you arrived at your number.

Now another thing to consider is that if Q1 earnings do come in closer to my estimate of .31 cents (versus the .13 cents analyst consensus) and if we assume Q1 to be the weakest / lowest earnings quarter in 2023, and we assume a minimum of .31 cents earnings for each of the next 3 quarters, that equates to annual earnings of at least $1.24 per share.  Base on today's closing price of $9.91 a share that puts us at a PE ratio of about 8x earnings or a very cheap share price.  Based on these calculations I can't figure out why anyone would be selling their shares at today's price (except for some profit taking after the latest run-up).  I bought another 10K shares today and now hold over 50K shares because I strongly believe that if VGCX management gets their act together (and they seem to finally be well on their way) this stock is going a lot higher in my opinion.

GMT Capital Corp from Atlanta recently picked up over $6million shares of VGCX in March (as per their SEDAR filing) at what I very roughly estimate to be at an average price of about $8.50 a share and so I suspect that they must see something of interest in VGCX.  About 4 million of the 6 million shares acquired by GMT appear to be from T ROWE with T ROWE still holding about 1.3 million shares so the fact that T ROWE is still holding VGCX shares and didn't completely liquidate their position suggests to me that they found a better place to reallocate some capital but still have faith in VGCX in 2023.

It's interesting to see the huge variation in analyst price targets on this stock (ranges from $10.50 to $21.00), the latest one from CIBC being a $10.50 price target.  Wow that's a brave call considering the stock was trading near that price when they made the call.  The scary part is that if that CIBC analyst actually thinks this stock is only worth $10.50 a share then that just proves how little they actualy know about this company and its earnings potential.

Anyway, the above is my opinion only so please DYODD.