RE:Kelts Evaluation verses Tamarack Valley EnergySo went thru the #s for a 3rd time...: Q1 guesstimated field netback $36 per boe. interest/dividend/G&A $9 per boe. Capex $19 per boe. FCF: $8 per boe or $200M per year. Cashflow required to meet their debt repayment and taxes obligations this year: $15 per boe. Conclusion: asset sales or equity raise required of at least $200MM. This excludes cash used for buybacks or provisions for income tax (on the profits).
You see the problem when you compare to HWX. HWX netback in Q4 was $48 and interest and G&A was $1. Because of this strong netback and because they have $$$ in the bank, they can afford to spend $30/boe of capex and pay a big dividend ($15/per boe). If they spent the same amount per boe on capex as TVE ($19), my guesstimate for Q1 FCF excluding dividend would be $20 per boe for HWX versus $12 for TVE.
Based on current market caps and 2023 projected boepd, it seems you have similar commodity price related upside with HWX as you do with TVE. If commodity prices go down however, HWX may be picking up assets for a song while HWX may be selling them for the same tune (Ditto for Kelt plus Kelt has the natgas optionality (Oak)). YMMV.