RE:RE:NatGas producers have mastered the artPEY behaves in a very frustrating way for its shareholders.
The trick is to have a core position, let's say 50% of a full position, and being very, very patient for the ultimate screaming buy (that will show up once or twice a year) to enter full position.
Right now, visibility is not good enough. Too much production in North America, and Peyto is paying an unsustainable dividend without its hedge book at current Natgas strip. Relative to some of its peers (TOU, BIR) , it carries too much debt and management would not buy a single share even if it was trading down to a $1. Also, it looks like production is stalling even with quarterly capex above $100m.
A much more dynamic strategy, would have been a smaller increase in dividends, let's say $0.05 a month, and use half the $125m/year to pay back debt and the other half for a NCIB.
With this $215m/year dividend, Peyto is depleting its value... That money does not grow in trees.
And its weaknesses will catch her up, eventually.
My average cost basis is below $7 and around $5 with the profits taken last year. It helps being very patient.