RE:StifelAnalyst doesn't understand the $2.00 SD is paid from Q4 2022 results. The $1.50 SD just announced is based on Q1 FCF.
Also, not sure where he gets $762M in dividends. 339M share at $1.50 is $508M. Even adding regular divys in you don't get close.
retiredcf wrote: A bit surprising. GLTA
Stifel’s Michael Dunn cut his Tourmaline Oil Corp. target to $75 from $77 with a “buy” rating. The average is $81.29.
“A positive update overall (1Q results in line, higher special dividends for 2023, improved cash flow estimates). 1Q production and cash flow matched expectations, with more than $500-million of FCF helping to pay $762-million in dividends,” said Mr. Dunn. “The $2.00-per-share special dividend for 1Q has been followed by a higher than expected $1.50 per share for 2Q, and TOU changed its guidance on 2023 FCF returns to ‘up to all’ vs. 50-90 per cent previously, while increasing the regular dividend by 4 per cent. Our 2023/2024 estimated cash flow estimates change by 11 per cent/negative 3 per cent on a like-for-like price deck basis after updating our modeling of price realizations, market exposure, and hedges. Given recent declines in strip pricing we are nudging our target price down ... We believe TOU is well-positioned to generate significant FCF at current prices and participate in natural gas price upside looking forward.”