Kelt is 39% liquids in Q1 - 14% Quarter over Quarter GrowthBalance Sheet Improvement Net debt in Q4-2022 was
9.8 million dollars owing, now the next debt is a surplus of
4.9 million dollars or a balance sheet improvement of 14.7 million dollars.
92 millin AFFO in Q1, is almost 1/3 of the Cash required for the year to fund their capital budget of 285 million fully and take on no addition debt. So as a result of this quarter results they actually retired 9.8 million in debt and added 4.9 million to the balance sheet.
Kelt also added about 2784 net acres in the first Quarter improving their land holdings, likely around their core play areas. So they spent a little money on land to boot.
Q2 Well Production Additions - Four-well Montney pad at Pouce Coupe
- Spirit River - two wells from the same pad Charlie Lake
Drilling - Second Charlie Lake well Complets IP30 1230
- Montney 4 well pay commences drilling
- Oak drilled 2 wells in Q1
- Expect to drill 3 wells in Q2
So it looks like in Q2 we should see 7 wells added, 4 wells from Pouce Coupe, and two additional wells from Charlie Lake Spirit river, and one more Charlie lake well in Wembley.
In Q2 I can see them having a good run at their full year production guidance number because they is a good chance between these 7 wells they would be associated with 7,000 boe/day of production capacity in Q2, so we Q4 Keltgot 14% increase, If Kelt could get 14% increase again that that would put kelt in the range of 35,000 - 36,000 in Q2 that would exceed their forecast. Increase production 3-4 thousand boe/day seem quite reasonable.
It would also likely exceed their cashflow projections, as they have already funded 1/3 of the capex with Q1 results.
Q2 looks like it will shape up better than Q1 in my opinion, there will be some slow downs because of breakup.
IMHO