RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Consumer Discretionary up 23% in Q1 of US My inequality sign should be the other way but the point is clear and gdp is trending down.
It's too early to put the party hats on in the economy. If I had to compare 2023 to past market cycles, I would compare it to 2007 before the GFC, late 2000/early 2001 in the dotcom bubble, late 1989 early 1990 in the gulf war recession. I'm not discounting the possibility of a soft landing as past rate hikes in 1966,1984 and 1995 did not lead us into a recession. The probability tilts us into a greater likelihood we end up in one as we have had 10 recessions since 1957 and 3 of the Fed hiking cycles; namely, 1966,1984 and 1995 did not. That's a probability of 3 out of 13 times that this time will be different.
Anyway, I'm not much of an equity guy these days but I continue to hold shares in Reitman. At least you and I are on the same page in that regard.