Intrinsic Value of Kelt is just to strong
The NAV per share of Kelt is $17.87 a share.
That without any Wembley Charlie Lake reserves, additional reserves that will come from Oak, or more booked locations at wembley/pipestone.
So if you can buy the stock at $5.23 its a steal.
Their Cash Flow is not just starting to ramp up, the 20 million bonus they got in Q1 was a lottery ticket to ensure they can execute their plan, and they have room to take on debt, with more than 100 million undrawn.
The Keyera plant that wembley will be producing into will be onstream in Jan 24, and all the wells will be ready to go a long time before that. So i expect they will produce 34,000 boe average in 2023, (At Least) and with 7,000 boe added in January that is 41,000 boe day in January 2023.
Now if they add another 5,000 boe additiionally in 2024, that would be 12,000 boe/day so 2024 production would likely be around 46,000 boe/day.
That is a 33% increase of 2023.
At the end of 2024 they will have 50Mmcf coming on at the end of the year which is 14-16 thousand boe of addition production for 2025.
So in 18 months from now, Kelt could be producing 64,000 boe/day.
They have no debt, and really even at 70 dollar oil this is not a big issue.
2022 27,276 boe/day
2023 34,000 boe/day
2024 46,000 boe/day (7-8 thousand will be Wembley Jan 2024)
2025 64,000 boe/day (14-16 thousand more boe capacity Wembley added Dec 2024)
So time to buy more is my thinking i am loading up on this one.
IMHO