RE:RE:Oil Market is Much Tighter than it AppearsMore amateur hour opinions:
As a further comment, you can see that all the US natgas stocks are way up today, the most is Antero (because they're unhedged..) up 7%. The reason is simple: natural gas storage drives HH prices even though storage represents a tiny amount of US dry gas production and even a small cut in the latter will have a significant impact on storage.
The current rig count cuts - from 160 to 137 (no cuts reported today) - seem sensible - after a year 800 to 900 Bs are removed from the system by my guesstimate. Meanwhile they can cut completions more as they can always bring those online at a later date.
And will they cut? Of course they will. EQT who are the biggest are targeting a $2.30 break even cost......by 2027! The HH for the next 6 months (ie incl. Nov and Dec) is $2.65 - draw your own conclusions!!!